INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITION, JANUARY 2010

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITION, JANUARY 2010

India / China: "India, China Discuss Mutual Security Issues"
Defense News, 07 January 2010

Defense Secretary Pradeep Kumar arrived in Beijing yesterday for high-level talks with Chinese officials. Kumar met with Ma Xiaotian, the People's Liberation Army Deputy Chief of the General Staff, marking the first time that an Indian official with the position of permanent secretary has engaged in security talks with China. According to sources, "very sensitive" issues were discussed, including China's naval build-up, its presence in the Indian Ocean, its large increases in defense spending, and the as-yet unresolved border dispute between the two countries. China currently claims 92,000 square kilometers of Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh in the Himalayas, making the 4,056 km Line of Actual Control that divides the states the world's longest contested boundary.

Japan / United States: "Japan indicts U.S. soldier accused of negligent driving"
Xinhua, 07 January 2010
The Japanese government today indicted American soldier Clyde Gunn on charges of negligent driving causing death. Gunn, a 27 year-old staff sergeant with the Green Berets based at the Torii Communication Station in Yomitan, Okinawa Prefecture, is accused of a November 7th hit-and-run incident that left a 66 year-old local man dead. The incident occurred at the same time as Japan's new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)-led government was negotiating the removal of American forces from Okinawa, and led to protests in December in Okinawa demanding Gunn's arrest that drew over a thousand locals. Past incidents involving US service personnel committing crimes off-base in Okinawa have fueled local anger against the American presence on the island, and the party's strong stance on the issue is said to have helped the DPJ to victory in last year's elections.

Japan: "Kan Calls for Weaker Yen" & "A Voice From Within China: Let Yuan Rise 10%"
Wall Street Journal, 07 January 2010
Naoto Kan, who replaced Hirohisa Fuji as Finance Minister Wednesday after Fuji was hospitalized for fatigue, said in his first press conference today that he favors a weaker yen, in direct contrast to his predecessor's comments. Furthermore, Kan specified an ideal yen-to-dollar ration - ¥95 to USD $1 - which he said would provide much-needed encouragement to Japan's export-dependent economy, though this could have the backlash of making Japan even more prone to suffering when its exports are not bought, as has been the case in recent months. Despite several federal stimulus packages and the central bank keeping interest rates near zero, Japan's economy has been slow to recover from the Great Recession, and fears that a second "lost decade" are likely high in Tokyo. The DPJ cannot afford a return to recession if it hopes to capture a majority in the Upper House in elections in July; the DPJ is aiming for a majority in both houses so it can throw off its coalition partners, who have taken counter-DPJ stances in terms of the economy and the relocation of the Futenma Air Base in Okinawa. In related news, yesterday, Zhang Bin, a fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing, which regularly proffers advice to the government, suggested that the Yuan’s value should be increased by 10 percent as China's contribution to exiting the Great Recession; China has been singled out for criticism, particularly in the West, over the value of its currency, which hurts Western and Asian exports and maintains China's export surplus.

China: "China says missile defense system test successful"
Seattle Post-Intelligencer. 11 January 2010
The Chinese government announced on Monday that it had successfully tested a land-based missile interceptor over the weekend, adding that the test was "defensive in nature and not targeted at any country." Although Beijing's three sentence-long report on the test did not reveal what type of system was used, defense analysts say it could have been an upgraded Russian-built SA-20 PMU-2 surface-to-air missile or China's indigenous HQ-9 interceptor. During its current push towards military modernization, China has been working to develop missile interceptors that can down incoming ballistic missiles, as well as UAVs and stealth aircraft.

China: "China may become world's top exporter" & "China overtakes Germany as biggest exporter"
Economic Times, 10 January 2010 & CBC News, 10 January 2010
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) - whose reports in the past have been met with a degree of skepticism - China's exports in December 2009 totaled USD $130.7 billion, up 17.7 percent year-on-year, with an annual export total of $1.23 trillion, edging out Germany - which posted an annual export total of $1.2t - as the world's leading exporter. In addition, China's December imports reached a high of $112.3b, up 55.9 percent over last year, though there is some concern that domestic growth is being fueled by an urban construction bubble. China has been the target of criticism over its export surplus, which many in the West blame on an undervalued Yuan; Beijing has refused to value its currency upward and has staunchly defended its position on the grounds that a stronger Yuan would inhibit domestic development.

China: "China faces growing gender imbalance"
BBC News, 11 January 2010
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released a report this week that shows a serious gender imbalance emerging in China. The report shows that by 2020 there could be more than 24 million Chinese men of marrying age without a potential female partner, raising serious concerns over what this will do to China's social fabric. According to researchers, sex-specific abortions are the main cause of the imbalance, as parents deliberately abort female fetuses hoping to instead give birth to a son. The practice is especially pronounced in rural China, where in some regions 130 male babies are born for every 100 female babies; nationally the figure is not much better, at 119 males born for every 100 females. The trend is already having social effects in some parts of rural China, where human trafficking and forced prostitution are "rampant."

China: "Chinese officials fled overseas with $50 billion"
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 11 January 2010
China's Supreme People's Procurator ate (SPP), the country's top prosecutorial office, revealed today that over the past 30 years top Chinese officials have fled the country overseas, taking with them an estimated USD $50 billion in state funds. The SPP's report shows that top government officials worked with criminal gangs both inside and outside China in order to launder funds, obtain fake passports, and buy real estate abroad. Beijing has now reportedly set up a multi-agency government task force to look into the activities of government officials who travel overseas; 319 officials were investigated last year alone. The report cited one example of Yang Xianghong, the party chief of a district in Wenzhou city in eastern Zhejiang province, who went on a trip to France last year on government business but refused to return home. Yang's wife was later arrested by police on charges of trying to launder over $2.9m. The report reveals in part the high-level corruption that China has faced since its meteoric economic rise that started a generation ago.

South Korea: "ROK to join Cobra Gold exercise in Thailand for first time"
Xinhua, 11 January 2010
Thai military officials announced today that South Korea will join the annual Cobra Gold exercises for the first time. The exercises, now in their 29th year, will run from 1-11 February and will include Thailand, the United States, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan and ROK; ten other nations will be present as observers. The Thai officials said South Korea's presence was welcome, as they would bring with them high-tech military equipment that would improve the overall quality of the training scenarios. The main exercises will consist of a computer-simulated command post exercise, a field training exercise, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. According to the US, the major sponsor for the exercises, they will improve US Pacific Command's ability to work with regional partners and increase interoperability among participating countries.

China: "Text messaging restored in Xinjiang" & "China launches third orbiter for global navigation system"
Al Jazeera, 18 January 2010 & Monsters & Critics, 17 January 2010
The government of China's restive Xinjiang province has lifted prohibitions on text messaging service that have been in effect for more than six months. The crackdown on communications by the government was in response to the deadly July 2009 riots in the capital Urumqi which left 200 people dead. Nonetheless, restoring freedom to communication is incremental: cell phone users are limited to 20 text messages per day, they cannot send messages to international numbers, and on line chat rooms are still blocked. The government of Xinjiang has doubled its funding for public security to USD $423 million for 2010 as compared with last year. In related telecommunications news, China successfully launched its third satellite orbiter for the country's independent satellite navigation network known as Beidou, or Compass system. The network will eventually comprise 35 satellites, capable of providing global navigation services to users around the world by 2020; navigation and short message services within the Asian Pacific region will begin in 2012. The intent for Beidou, which started in 2000, is to break China's

China: "China 'recovers' from global slump"
Al Jazeera, 21 January 2010
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's economic growth accelerated to 10.7 percent in the final quarter of 2009. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) for the whole year rose 8.7 percent, which brings its total GDP, as of 2009, to USD $4.9 trillion. Despite its economic success, average income in China is still extremely limited: average income for city dwellers in 2009 was only $2,700, while in the countryside it was $732. Additionally, China's economy saw a sharp rise in inflation in the fourth quarter, as consumer prices gradually rose 0.6 percent in November, and then spiked by 1.9 percent in December. According to economists, this is the steepest one-month rise in inflation sine February 2008. Inflation is a sensitive issue in Beijing since the Communist government bases its legitimacy largely on China's economic growth. Economists cite last year's unprecedented $586 b stimulus initiative and the surge in new loans as the cause of the inflation, which China used to shore up the economy against the shocks of the financial crisis. Nonetheless, China is still not entirely out of the economic malaise, as the World Bank's report Global Economic Prospects 2010 predicts that China's economic patterns could develop a price bubble in the near future.

China: "300,000 more to move for dam"
Straits Times, 21 January 2009
Chinese state media has reported the government plans to move another 300,000 people from the Chongqing province to facilitate the continuation of the Three Gorges Dam project. The latest round of relocations are based on plans to build an "eco-belt" around the reservoir to prevent pollution from nearby communities from contaminating the water; the "eco-belt" proposal is still awaiting approval. Since the project began in 1993, nearly 1.3 million residents have been relocated.

Taiwan / United States: "Military transit allowed"
Straits Times, 21 January 2009
At the risk of irking China, the US allowed a Taiwan military transport plane to transit US territory for the first time in 30 years. The C-130 cargo plane, which was carrying relief supplies to Haiti, was given approval to land and refuel on the grounds of humanitarian assistance; it is not confirmed whether the plane did in fact land. The decision to allow a Taiwanese military plane to cross US airspace follows Washington's approval of two separate arms deals with Taipei earlier this month: a USD $6.5 billion contract for Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles, and a deal for 8 Perry-class frigates. The military procurement deals were hotly contested by Beijing who does not recognize Taiwan's independence and the transit clearance for the C-130 will also likely spark criticism from China.

India / South Korea: "South Korea upbeat on n-pact with India, signs IT and space pacts" & "Korea, India forge strategic relations"
New Kerala, 25 January 2010 & South Korea Herald, 26 January 2010
While in India for a four-day visit this week, South Korean President Lee signed four accords with his counterpart, PM Singh, in areas such as the peaceful use of outer space and IT development. Lee and Singh also vowed to foster bilateral ties, including increasing trade from 2009's level of USD $12.2 billion to $30b by 2014 by taking advantage of a free trade agreement that took effect January 1st. Lee, who has been focusing on greater ties with Southeast and Central Asia via his New Asia Initiative, discussed the possibility of greater dialogue, military exchanges and joint military equipment development, and economic cooperation, including South Korea entering India's potential $150b nuclear energy market. South Korea, which has recently enhanced state mechanisms to promote arms exports, is bidding for a $500m Indian procurement of military trainer jets, and both countries are seeking greater regional ties to counterbalance China, which is projected to surpass Japan and become the world's second-largest economy this year.

China / India / Mauritius: "China makes foray into Mauritius"
Financial Times, 25 January 2010
China has invested USD $700 million in a special economic zone in Mauritius - traditionally a bastion of Indian influence - expanding Beijing's clout to the point where Mauritian Vice-Prime Minister Sithanen claims that Chinese President Hu can be personally called upon to resolve disputes. Mauritius, which has a population primarily of Indian descent, has been marketing itself aggressively to New Delhi and Beijing as a gateway to eastern and southern Africa, with the island nation directing Chinese investment towards logistics, port infrastructure, and financial services, and away from the traditional sectors of sugar cane and tourism. Indian Vice-Admiral Das, former commander of India's Eastern Naval Command, warned that although current Chinese inroads in the region are benign, they could be added to China's "string of pearls", a series of military bases, ports and listening posts that stretches through the Indian Ocean. For its part, India has had a listening post operational in Madagascar since July 2007, among other Indian Ocean facilities.

Japan / United States: "Japan Vote for New Mayor Threatens Base"
Wall Street Journal, 24 January 2010
In what is being touted as a de facto referendum on the proposed plan to relocate the Futenma airbase used by American forces in Okinawa, Susumu In amine, who opposes the move, narrowly defeated his opponent, incumbent Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, in a mayoral election in Nago, which is close to the proposed relocation site, Camp Schwab. The election's results do not mean a halt to the relocation since the prefectural governor, who has been a vocal proponent of expelling the US Marines from Okinawa, and national government could still continue as planned. However, the mayoral election results in Nago do mean increased domestic pressure on PM Hatoyama, who is caught between a campaign promise to renegotiate the relocation and Washington, which favors the existing plan. Although Nago rejected the expansion of Camp Schwab to accommodate Funtenma's forces in 1997, three mayors favoring the plan were subsequently elected, and Tokyo has agreed to provide USD $900 million to Nago for agreeing to the expansion of Camp Schwab.

The Koreas: "North Korea fires artillery again toward South"
Washington Post, 28 January 2010
For the second time in as many days, North Korea fired artillery rounds in the direction of a South Korean island near the disputed maritime Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea, though South Korean units did not return fire this time. Pyongyang cited a routine military drill as the reason for the artillery fire, and declared a no-sail zone in the region ending in March, indicating that it may also test-fire missiles there. Analysts note that the North seems to be pursuing a two-track engagement strategy with the South, whereby it continues threats against the South and conducts provocative activities while requesting humanitarian aid and dialogue on the joint North-South Kaesong industrial park, and bilateral dialogue with the United States.