INTENATIONAL SECURITY EDITION, FEBRUARY 2010

INTENATIONAL SECURITY EDITION, FEBRUARY 2010

The Koreas: "N. Korea fires artillery for third day: Seoul military"
AFP, 29 January 2010
On the 29th of January, North Korea fired artillery rounds into their disputed sea border with South Korea, formally known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL), for a third successive day.
The North Korean People's Army fired 20 shells in the morning into North Korean waters off South Korea's Yeonpyeong island. According to Seoul, North Korea fired 300 shells on January 27th, and 50 more on the next day. While the North claims that it is conducting a routine artillery drill, the South criticized the gunfire as provocative and is considering moving more artillery and advanced radar to two border islands along the NLL. Despite this row, South Korea is still scheduled to participate in discussions over an upcoming joint business project with the North.

North Korea: "North Korean weapons mystery continues"
Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 01 February 2010
Thai prosecutors completed their investigation into the North Korean plane loaded with arms that was stopped at the Bangkok airport last December. Excerpts from the Thai government's report to the UN Security Council were leaked to the media over the weekend and show that the arms were ultimately headed to Tehran's Mehrabad Airport, leading to further questions over what group was to have received the arms. The December 12th shipment of 35 tons of arms was comprised mostly of "light battlefield arms" including grenades, although analysts have pointed out that North Korean-produced grenades are of inferior quality compared with those currently equipping the Iranian armed forces, and thus there is speculation that the arms could have been intended for one of the many groups which Tehran, largely through its Revolutionary Guards, supports throughout the Middle East. The plane's crew, four Kazakhstanis and one Belarusian, maintain that the Il-76's final destination was Kiev, and not Tehran.

China: "China Rejects Demands for Greater Tibetan Autonomy"
New York Times, 01 February 2010
Beijing again rejected demands made by Tibetan officials for greater autonomy during bilateral talks between Chinese officials and envoys of the exiled Dalai Lama. In the first talks held in over 15 months, Chinese officials from the United Front Work Department, the section of the Chinese Communist Party that officially manages the country's ethnic policy, rejected the position of the Tibetan envoys that called for an administrative zone for Tibetan-majority parts of Western China, as well as greater autonomy for that region. Although the Dalai Lama does not demand full independence, he does seek greater control over such things as religious rights, immigration, and education in parts of China that have a Tibetan majority, largely what Beijing calls the Tibet Autonomous Region, and parts of Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu and Yunnan provinces. The talks were the ninth held since 2002; previous meetings similarly produced little tangible progress.

Taiwan: "Taipei Gets $6 Billion Arms Package Despite Beijing Threats" & "China cancels military exchanges with US after Taiwan deal"
Defense News, 30 January 2010 & Times of India, 30 January 2010
In the first new US arms deal since George W. Bush left office, congressional notifications have been made in a deal with Taiwan worth USD $6 billion. While the deal does not include the submarines Bush promised, it does include 60 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters, 114 Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) missiles, three AN/MPQ-65 radar sets, 60 Multi-functional Informational Distribution Systems (MIDS), two refurbished Osprey-class Mine Hunting ships, and 12 Harpoon training missiles. The deal also comes with communication packages and data link systems. Beijing is enraged by the deal and have stated that military-to-military relations will be severely damaged (military exchanges have already been suspended). Analysts believe that the deal may have further negative repercussions affecting trade and other arms deals, as well as possible security threats. Following the October 2008 $6.4b arms sale from Washington to Taipei, for example, several naval incidents occurred involving US and Chinese vessels that significantly raised tensions between the two powers.

China: "Beijing considers pollution tax" & "China Report Finds Extensive Pollution"
Financial Times, 09 February 2010 & Wall Street Journal, 10 February 2010
In its first national pollution census, Beijing revealed Tuesday that the country's water is more polluted and industry produces vastly more waste than previously thought, with farms being singled out as the greatest polluter due to runoff from pesticides and fertilizers. The Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, which created the census from public records, found that 30.3 million metric tons of pollution was discharged in 2007 - more than double the 13.8m tons reported, which Beijing claimed was a three percent drop from 2006 - and that solid industrial waste, such as that from mines and steel mills, totaled 49.1m tons in 2007, more than triple earlier figures. The government's honesty over the new figures is surprising, but the fact that they were initially reported so low is unsurprising, given that local managers are pushed to produce economic growth - no matter if it is environmentally sustainable - for the sake of their careers, and government oversight offices are underfunded - a mere USD $100 million was allocated to the environmental census in 2006 - and understaffed. The situation has apparently become so dire that Beijing is considering levying a tax on pollution, and the number of pollution-related protests is increasing steadily; this past weekend, over 300 people rallied against reservoir construction in southern Guangdong province over concerns that the project will limit water for agriculture and human consumption.

China: “Officer boasts of 12,000 spies”
Sydney Morning Herald, 12 February 2010
A director of an inner-Mongolian public security bureau claims that police officers have recruited over 12,000 of Kailu county’s 400,000 residents as informants. These informants reportedly collect actionable intelligence on planned protests and general criminal activity in the county, allowing officers to intervene before they escalate. While China’s network is extensive, the revelation that one in every 33 local residents is enlisted as civilian-informants has not been verified by an independent source, and may be an announcement to intimidate dissidents.

China: “China activist’s appeal rejected”
Al-Jazeera, 11 February 2010
A court has rejected the appeal of Liu Xiaobo, a prominent dissident, writer, and former university professor, against his 11-year sentence. Liu was detained in December 2008 shortly after co-authoring a document that called for fundamental political reforms in China and an end to Communist Party’s dominance. He was sentenced on December 25th 2009 on charges of subverting state power. Analysts believe that this sentence is intended for other audiences, especially the international community, which China has advised not to interfere in its internal affairs. Nonetheless, this ruling has received criticism from both at home and abroad. In January, four retired Communist Party officials sent a letter to the governmental imploring it to review Liu’s case, and suggested that his conviction violated Chinese jurisprudence. The US condemned the ruling, asserting that it is inconsistent with global human rights standards.

China / Australia: "China Charges Rio Tinto Employees"
Wall Street Journal, 10 February 2010
Four employees of the Anglo-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto who have been detained since July 2009 have been indicted on charges of accepting "huge" bribes from Chinese steel companies and using "improper" channels to acquire Chinese commercial secrets. The development means the quartet will likely be punished, since few trials in China result in acquittal, especially high-profile cases. This incident last summer shocked the business community and raised Sino-Australian tensions, and could be part of a larger pattern of China expressing new-found confidence and flexing its muscle, such as when Akmal Shaikh, an allegedly mentally ill British citizen was executed for drug smuggling against London's protests, as well as the recent Google row.

Taiwan: "Su Chi resigns post as Taiwan security czar"
Taiwan News, 12 February 2010
National Security Council (NSC) Secretary-General Su Chi, Taiwan's top national security aid to President Ma Ying-jeou, announced his resignation on Thursday. During a press conference at the Presidential Office, Su cited family and health issues as the reason for his departure, however, observers are speculating that his resignation may be linked to Parliament's announcement last month that it would overturn a protocol signed between Taipei and Washington last October aimed at relaxing import restrictions on US beef products, negotiations in which Su played a key role and may be the reason for his resignation. Su, an advisor to Ma on foreign affairs and China relations since before he became president in May 2008, will be replaced by veteran diplomat Hu Wei-jen on Feb 23rd.

The Koreas / Japan: "S. Korea, Japan agree to bolster intelligence-sharing on N. Korea"
Yonhap News, 11 February 2010
Japanese Foreign Minister Okada met with South Korean Unification Minister In-taek in Seoul today, with the pair agreeing that the two countries will increase intelligence sharing on North Korea to help coordinate a response to the North and its nuclear program. Okada also met with South Korean Foreign Minister Myung-hwan, which produced a call for the Six Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program to resume; Pyongyang has rejected the multilateral talks and lobbied for bilateral talks with the US, while top North Korean officials have met with Chinese delegates. Both Seoul and Tokyo consider North Korea to be a significant security threat, and the issue may provide common ground for the two nations to increase ties and put behind them issues such as Japan's conduct in WWII.

South Korea / Uzbekistan: "S Korea, Uzbekistan reaffirm strategic partnership"
Xinhua, 11 February 2010
Uzbek leader Islam Karimov arrived in Seoul this week to sign a number of deals with his Korean counterpart, President Lee Myung-bak. Of note, the two leaders signed a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) for a joint project valued at USD $4 billion for the development of chemical plants and gas fields near the Uzbek town of Surgil. The project will be run by both South Korea's KOGAS and Uzbekistan's Uzbekneftgas, and will significantly increase Seoul's energy imports from the Central Asian country once online. The two companies have a well-established relationship, as they already cooperate on several other fields, including the Namangan and Chest oil fields and others in West Fergana and China bad. South Korea's investment in Uzbekistan is seen as key if it hopes to stay competitive with Russia, China, and the US, who have also inked deals that grant access to Central Asia's vast oil and gas reserves.

Japan / South Korea / China: “Japan apologizes for colonial rule of Korea” & “Nanjing by the Numbers”
CNN, 11 February 2010 & Foreign Policy, 09 February 2010
Two steps towards reconciling bitter wartime memories occurred recently between Japan, South Korea and China. Japan’s Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada apologized to South Korea for Japan’s occupation of Korea from 1910-1945. During that time, as many historians argue, Japan’s military is accused of forcing 200,000 women to serve as sex slaves for soldiers in the Japanese Imperial Army. Okada stated that the period was “a tragic incident for Koreans when they were deprived of their nation and their identity.” Similarly, the governments of Japan and China recently re-opened the issue of Nanking, in which invading Japanese soldiers killed, tortured, and raped a massive number of Chinese civilians, and released a joint report on this contentious topic. While they still disagreed on the death toll, this report is significant because for the first time historians appointed by both countries agreed that the Japanese military committed atrocities and that Japan’s illegal acts of aggression were the main cause of hostilities. Because of the stigma attached to Japan’s wartime history, Japanese governments are usually unapologetic for the destruction that Imperial Japan wrought on China, Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. However, Tokyo’s preference to avoid reconciliation rather than confront the legacy of its past perpetuates an atmosphere of discord, enmity, and distrust between Japan and these countries.

China / North Korea: "China to invest 10 billion dollars in North Korea, report says" & "China Plans $10 Billion Investment in North Korea"
Monsters & Critics, 15 February 2010 & Korea Times, 15 February 2010
During a meeting between Chinese and North Korean senior diplomats last week, Beijing agreed to invest USD $10 billion into the impoverished communist country. The investments will originate from several Chinese state-owned banks and will be part of a deal to build railways, ports, housing and other infrastructure through North Korea's Taepung International Investment Group. According to an unidentified source privy to Taepung group affairs, the investment is equal to roughly 70 percent of North Korea's gross domestic product, which the source valued at USD $15 billion, and would account for 60 percent of total investments into the country. Analysts believe that China is using this investment as an incentive to persuade North Korea to resume its participation in the Six Party denuclearization talks, which Pyongyang unilaterally abrogated last April after the UN Security Council enacted strong sanctions against the country in response to its missile tests. These sanctions have hit North Korea hard, as the country has relied heavily on foreign aid since its disastrous famine in the 1990s. Today, the country suffers from persistent severe food shortages, which have been exacerbated by a currency revaluation last November. According to government officials in Pyongyang, the lifting of sanctions, as well as an agreement from the US to hold talks on a peace pact for the peninsula, are the two pre-conditions that must be fulfilled before North Korea re-enters the Six Party framework.

United States / Uzbekistan: "U.S. has no plans to deploy military base in Uzbekistan - envoy"
RIA Novosti, 22 February 2010
The US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Amb. Richard Holbrooke, denied reports yesterday that Washington is planning to open a new military base in Uzbekistan. Holbrooke was in Central Asia for meetings with regional leaders and said that, despite a military presence in some Central Asian states, there are no plans to expand the US presence to Uzbekistan. The US has, since the start of the war in Afghanistan, been seeking logistical hubs in Central Asia to support its forces, but this has been met with resistance from Russia, which sees the region as within its sphere of influence.

Taiwan: "Pentagon paints grim picture of Taiwan air defense" & "U.S. Intel Report on Taiwan Air Power Released"
Associated Press, 22 February 2010 & Defense News, 22 February 2010
The Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a report today saying that Taiwan's air defense capabilities would not be available to withstand an attack by China, since most of Taiwan's 400 combat aircraft are not operationally capable. The DIA report specifies that Taiwan's 60 US-made F-5 fighters are at the end of their operation life, its 126 domestically produced Indigenous Defense Fighters lack "the capability for sustained sorties" due to their "limited combat range and payload capacity", and the expense involved in maintaining its 56 French-made Mirage 2000-5 fighters compromises their operational readiness. Taiwan has maintained a standing request for 66 F-16C/Ds from the US since 2006, and some - especially Taiwanese lawmakers - are using this report to push for the congressional approval of the sale, in part because F-16 production lines in the US will shift over to F-35 production soon. Given Beijing's response and the US' latest arms sale to Taiwan, it remains unlikely that Taipei's wish list will be fulfilled anytime soon.

China / United States: “China summons U.S. ambassador over Dalai Lama meeting”
CNN, 21 February 2010
Last week US President Obama met with the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of Tibet, to discuss the issues of Tibet, religious freedom, and human rights. While this meeting will likely draw the US closer to the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, these visits are a recurring source of contention between China and America; since the Dalai Lama desires Tibetan autonomy, Beijing regards him as an enemy of the state and a separatist. Consequently, the Chinese government condemns these diplomatic engagements, which began in 1991. This latest meeting, however, is especially significant because it comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing: trade disputes, a recent US arms sales deal to Taiwan – which China regards as a breakaway province - and a censorship row over Internet search engine Google have all deteriorated relations. The muscular rhetoric of state officials is emblematic of China’s frustrations; China summoned the US ambassador on Friday to express its “strong dissatisfaction” over the meeting, and a senior Community Party leader argued that the meeting may “seriously undermine Sino-US political relations.” Some analysts believe that China could retaliate by ending political exchanges, as they did after the Dalai Lama visited the heads of state of France and Germany. Additionally, Chinese President Hu Jintao could reject an invitation to visit Washington in April.

China / United States / Saudi Arabia: "China taps more Saudi crude than US"
Financial Times, 21 February 2010
For the first time, Saudi exports of crude oil to China exceeded those to the US in December 2009, with exports to the US dropping to 998,000 barrels per day (bpd) - the lowest since 1998 - while exports to China exceeded one million bpd. The shift in US demand comes from lessened domestic demand due to the economic recession, greater imports from more stable regions such as Canada, and the Obama administration's encouragement of alternative fuels and reduction of dependence on foreign oil, while China offers demand security, something Riyadh has long sought. This shift, should it continue, does not herald a significant change in the Saudi-American relationship, but it does indicate the trend of China becoming an increasingly important player in global energy markets and exerting greater influence in the Middle East in particular.

South Korea / Afghanistan: "Assembly passes bill to send Afghan troops"
South Korea Herald, 26 February 2010
The National Assembly passed a bill 148-to-5, with 10 abstentions - with some in the four opposition parties boycotting the vote - to send as many as 350 soldiers to Afghanistan beginning July 1st. The troops will be deployed to the northern province of Parwan to protect 120 Korean civilian aid workers in the Provincial Reconstruction Team there for 30 months. South Korea had 200 engineering and medical soldiers deployed in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2007, but withdrew them in Summer 2007 as part of a deal to have 21 South Korean Christian missions held hostage by the Taliban released.